隨筆

``` inertia of running makes Mario slip into the abyss skill issue ``` I used to wonder why supposedly smart people would just wreck themselves by speeding towards their doom. They're not stupid, and they could see it coming. But while they're not stupid in the sense that they see what's coming, they're not wise enough to avoid the wreck. The problem is either taking on too much inertia, or not seeing far enough into the future. Let's say the subject is investing. $1M in liquid assets has less inertia than $1M in property, in objects with illiquid assets, etc. $1B in liquid assets is not so liquid. You can't really dump $1B into the market without distorting it, unless the market depth is really huge. (Warren Buffet seems to have gotten away with such operations occasionally.) And those who invest "themselves" have the highest inertia. You can't just dump your shares of a failing company or failing business when you're the CEO or whatever. And that's why property developers in Hong Kong are fucked. Everyone knows there's a bubble, but when your existence depends on it, you can't do much except hope the time of reckoning comes later rather than early. It's counter-productive to predict the burst of the bubble and preemptively shut down business -- employees have families to feed and career ambitions to fulfill -- they're much more "real" than a vague prediction that the bubble will burst some day. And thus the machine keeps chugging along, growing itself. Those who avoid the wreck and fall not only see what's coming, they are wise enough to avoid it. Know that inertia spells doom to those who cannot see far, or are insufficiently willed to avoid the wreck. You can always reject your past self, since the past does not exist. But who can really do that?